Gold could surge to U.S. $ 2,500 an ounce or higher by the end of 2011, according to JP Morgan analysts goods Colin Fenton and Jonah Waxman.
Prior to Standard & Poor's lowered its rating of U.S. debt, 'they think of the commercials' Gold may average U.S. $ 1,800 by the end of the year. Now that view seems too conservative, analysts told clients.
They also see a lot of rising prices for raw sugar, possibly doubling or more in a peak due to the weak dollar and rising inflation.
It is recommended that analysts have raw material oriented towards Asia, investment and inflation, even though underweight those related to the United States or consumption.
"In the short term, commodity markets seem more likely to convulsions lower growth as a shock dislodges physical inventories and orders damages," they said. "These fears may dwell in the United States, where the costs of private financing is likely to go up and will be further strained household budgets."
However, analysts predict that the markets for raw materials linked to the growth of emerging markets, investments in infrastructure and inflation will settle down relatively quickly, surpassing the markets more closely linked to developed markets.
Not only is this trend already evident in the gold price increase from Friday downgraded, but also in the renewed expansion of Brent, WTI crude oil spread.
Analysts at JP Morgan favor a basket that includes Brent crude oil, gold, raw sugar, copper, corn and wheat. They recommend hedging this risk with underweight or shorts in a group that includes the WTI crude oil, RBOB gasoline, aluminum, zinc and natural gas in North America.
"Despite the novelty of a downgrade of U.S. debt scare is centered normal for this stage of the business cycle," they said. "The best scenario macro parallel mid-cycle pause in 1995 and 1998, rather than end-1981 or 2008, if the risk of a worse outcome is increasing and should not be ignored."
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น