Gold could surge to U.S. $ 2,500 an ounce or higher by the end of 2011, according to JP Morgan analysts goods Colin Fenton and Jonah Waxman.
Prior to Standard & Poor's lowered its rating of U.S. debt, 'they think of the commercials' Gold may average U.S. $ 1,800 by the end of the year. Now that view seems too conservative, analysts told clients.
They also see a lot of rising prices for raw sugar, possibly doubling or more in a peak due to the weak dollar and rising inflation.
It is recommended that analysts have raw material oriented towards Asia, investment and inflation, even though underweight those related to the United States or consumption.
"In the short term, commodity markets seem more likely to convulsions lower growth as a shock dislodges physical inventories and orders damages," they said. "These fears may dwell in the United States, where the costs of private financing is likely to go up and will be further strained household budgets."
However, analysts predict that the markets for raw materials linked to the growth of emerging markets, investments in infrastructure and inflation will settle down relatively quickly, surpassing the markets more closely linked to developed markets.
Not only is this trend already evident in the gold price increase from Friday downgraded, but also in the renewed expansion of Brent, WTI crude oil spread.
Analysts at JP Morgan favor a basket that includes Brent crude oil, gold, raw sugar, copper, corn and wheat. They recommend hedging this risk with underweight or shorts in a group that includes the WTI crude oil, RBOB gasoline, aluminum, zinc and natural gas in North America.
"Despite the novelty of a downgrade of U.S. debt scare is centered normal for this stage of the business cycle," they said. "The best scenario macro parallel mid-cycle pause in 1995 and 1998, rather than end-1981 or 2008, if the risk of a worse outcome is increasing and should not be ignored."
วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 11 สิงหาคม พ.ศ. 2554
JP Morgan warns parabolic Gold to Go and Rise to $ 2,500 by the end of the year
JP Morgan warns parabolic Gold to Go and Rise to $ 2,500 by the end of the year
Gold in U.S. dollars is 2.4% higher and higher against all currencies and traded at 1,760.40 USD, EUR 1,234.10, 1,075.70 GBP CHF JPY 132,719.00 and 1,306.80 per ounce.
Gold London PM fix was 1,770.00 USD, EUR 1,241.75, GBP 1,080.98. Gold has reached a new nominal record $ 1,780.10 / oz, and nominal new highs in euro and pound this morning.
Cross Currency Rates
Asian equities were mixed with strong falls saw the Hang Seng, the Nikkei has recovered, but in the end only -1.7% and the Australian and Chinese stock market is actually managed to climb on the day.
The FTSE, DAX and CAC fell 0.7%, 1.9% and 0.2% respectively, but U.S. futures are showing gains temporary.
There were further signs of stagflation in the UK as a manufacturing unexpectedly fell in June and the trade deficit widened. This is further evidence that the economic recovery is uncertain in the United Kingdom and EQ did not work.
The holders of U.S. debt Major
U.S. Treasuries dropped, pushing 10-year note yields up from the lowest level since January 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve can now introduce new stimulus measures to increase financial confidence.
More 'stimulus', or any new acronym QE3 fangled dreamed by desperate politicians will obviously bullish for gold and silver.
Libor-OIS
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS), raised their gold-price late last night.
JP Morgan now sees gold prices at $ 2,500 ounce by the end of the year, while Goldman expects gold to $ 1,730 in six months and $ 1,900 in 12 months.
This may be a sign that the current strong rallies may have reached its peak since neither bank has a lot of experience with regard to short-term trading calls on the commodity markets.
In the short term there is the risk of a correction with the increase of gold is becoming the front page (on the first page of the FT today), and news.
The fact that silver has fallen in recent days and remains below $ 40/oz and the fact that the shares of gold mines have also increased can also be an alarm signal.
Gold has risen from below $ 1500 / oz at almost $ 1,800 / oz in 5 weeks (early July) and is almost 18% in dollar terms.
Therefore, in conventional terms gold is definitely overbought.
However, we are not living in conventional or normal time and the ongoing global market crash and currency devaluation means that overall there is a chance that gold will dish as it did in 1970.
Investors would be prudent to continue to trend their friend, and any pullback should be used to buy the dip.
Those who wish to take profits after two days it would lower prices or lower than the first week. However, given the level or market systemic risk and monetary policy, investors are encouraged to maintain a financial precious metals is an insurance company.
Gold bull market seems very safe for the foreseeable future due to strong institutional demand (from smart hedge funds and central banks) and preserve the richness of the demand from Asia.
Just as silver because of increasing investment and demand for safe haven and the growing industrial demand for the precious metal versatile.
Gold in U.S. dollars is 2.4% higher and higher against all currencies and traded at 1,760.40 USD, EUR 1,234.10, 1,075.70 GBP CHF JPY 132,719.00 and 1,306.80 per ounce.
Gold London PM fix was 1,770.00 USD, EUR 1,241.75, GBP 1,080.98. Gold has reached a new nominal record $ 1,780.10 / oz, and nominal new highs in euro and pound this morning.
Cross Currency Rates
Asian equities were mixed with strong falls saw the Hang Seng, the Nikkei has recovered, but in the end only -1.7% and the Australian and Chinese stock market is actually managed to climb on the day.
The FTSE, DAX and CAC fell 0.7%, 1.9% and 0.2% respectively, but U.S. futures are showing gains temporary.
There were further signs of stagflation in the UK as a manufacturing unexpectedly fell in June and the trade deficit widened. This is further evidence that the economic recovery is uncertain in the United Kingdom and EQ did not work.
The holders of U.S. debt Major
U.S. Treasuries dropped, pushing 10-year note yields up from the lowest level since January 2009, on speculation the Federal Reserve can now introduce new stimulus measures to increase financial confidence.
More 'stimulus', or any new acronym QE3 fangled dreamed by desperate politicians will obviously bullish for gold and silver.
Libor-OIS
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS), raised their gold-price late last night.
JP Morgan now sees gold prices at $ 2,500 ounce by the end of the year, while Goldman expects gold to $ 1,730 in six months and $ 1,900 in 12 months.
This may be a sign that the current strong rallies may have reached its peak since neither bank has a lot of experience with regard to short-term trading calls on the commodity markets.
In the short term there is the risk of a correction with the increase of gold is becoming the front page (on the first page of the FT today), and news.
The fact that silver has fallen in recent days and remains below $ 40/oz and the fact that the shares of gold mines have also increased can also be an alarm signal.
Gold has risen from below $ 1500 / oz at almost $ 1,800 / oz in 5 weeks (early July) and is almost 18% in dollar terms.
Therefore, in conventional terms gold is definitely overbought.
However, we are not living in conventional or normal time and the ongoing global market crash and currency devaluation means that overall there is a chance that gold will dish as it did in 1970.
Investors would be prudent to continue to trend their friend, and any pullback should be used to buy the dip.
Those who wish to take profits after two days it would lower prices or lower than the first week. However, given the level or market systemic risk and monetary policy, investors are encouraged to maintain a financial precious metals is an insurance company.
Gold bull market seems very safe for the foreseeable future due to strong institutional demand (from smart hedge funds and central banks) and preserve the richness of the demand from Asia.
Just as silver because of increasing investment and demand for safe haven and the growing industrial demand for the precious metal versatile.
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